CCS Releases Results of 25th Annual Survey of North Country Community

The Center for Community Studies (CCS) at Jefferson Community College (JCC) released the findings of its 25th Annual North Country Survey of the Community on Thursday, December 5, 2024.  

The survey is an annual inventory of the attitudes and opinions of a representative sample of North Country adult residents and has been completed by the Center each year in Jefferson County since 2000. The survey expanded to include Lewis County annually in 2007, and further expanded to include St. Lawrence County in 2015. The primary goal of the survey is to collect data regarding quality-of-life issues of importance to local citizens, and as a result this study provides an annual “snapshot” of life in the North Country. Additionally, analysis of the 25th Annual Survey data provides an information-rich “motion-picture” of changes in the lives of residents over the past two and a half decades when trends are investigated via comparing with earlier-year results. The longitudinal trended data included in this study summarizes results of over 23,000 interviews that have been completed in a total of 53 county-specific surveys of the community in the three counties since 2000. 

Between October 22-27, 2024, a mixed-mode sampling method of contact was employed in this study to complete a total of 1,790 interviews of adult residents of the tri-county region, with 749 Jefferson County residents, 485 Lewis County residents, and 556 St. Lawrence County residents. Working under the supervision of the Center for Community Studies research staff in both a physical call center in Watertown and a virtual remote call center, JCC statistics students completed 546 live interviews via telephone on both landline phones and cellular phones of North Country adult residents.  An additional 1,137 surveys were completed online, with 522 via random email invitations and 615 via random MMS text message push-to-web invitations to cellular phones. Finally, 107 intercept surveys were completed at Fort Drum to assist in attaining accurate representation of the military-affiliated subpopulation in the sample collected in this study. The result of this sampling of 1,790 North Country residents is an approximate margin of error of ±3.0% after weighting sample survey results toward North Country population characteristics. 

Highlighted Findings from the 2024 Study:

1. For which North Country community indicators in 2024 are residents most/least satisfied? 
An effective method to assess which community characteristics, or indicators, are currently perceived as the most positive and most negative characteristics among North Country residents in October 2024 is to compare the rates of responding positively (“Excellent” or “Good”) for each studied indicator.  The most noteworthy observations are that in 2024, satisfaction with the local environment and outdoors, local education systems, and the overall quality of life are perceived most positively among residents.  Alternatively, it is cost of living characteristics that clearly are perceived most negatively, including childcare, real estate taxes, the cost of energy, housing, and the overall state of the local economy that are of most concern to residents.  To summarize:

The most positive attributes rated for the region:

• Quality of the environment (at least 64% rate as “Excellent” or “Good” in each of the three studied counties)
• Public outdoor recreational opportunities (at least 54% rate as “Excellent” or “Good” in each of the three studied counties)
• Quality of K-12 education (at least 52% rate as “Excellent” or “Good” in each of the three studied counties)
• Access to higher education (at least 46% rate as “Excellent” or “Good” in each of the three studied counties)
• Overall quality of life in the area (at least 41% rate as “Excellent” or “Good” in each of the three studied counties)

The most negative attributes rated for the region:

• Real estate taxes (at least 38% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)
• Cost of energy (at least 35% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)
• The overall state of the local economy (at least 30% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)
• Availability of housing (at least 30% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)
• Availability of good jobs (at least 29% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)
• Availability of childcare (at least 27% rate as “Poor” in each of the three studied counties)  

2. Which community indicators in 2024 differ most from their long-term average results? 

An effective method to assess which community characteristics, or indicators, are showing the most change in the current data relative to past typical results is to compare the 2024 result to the long-term average (LTA) result for each indicator. Graphs illustrating these comparisons of rates, of responding “Excellent” or “Good” over time for each indicator separated by county, are available in the Center’s findings report online. The most noteworthy observations are that in 2024 satisfaction with availability of good jobs is well higher than average in each of Jefferson and Lewis Counties, and any other more-positive-than-average results for indicators (by an increased rate of more than a 1% increase) were in Jefferson County, while none surfaced in the other two counties. In contrast, the results for each of the following indicators are well below long-term averages:

• Availability of housing (at least 18% below LTA in each county)
• Policing and crime control (at least 14% below LTA in each county)
• Availability of childcare (at least 13% below LTA in each county)
• Availability of care for the elderly (at least 12% below LTA in each county)

In summary, by these metrics, availability of housing is the community characteristic that shows the greatest decrease in satisfaction among North Country residents over the past quarter-century among the studied indicators, closely followed by policing and crime control, availability of childcare, and availability of care for the elderly. 

3. Which community indicators have changed the most/least in the past year (2023 vs. 2024)? 

An effective method to assess which community characteristics, or indicators, are showing the most change right now, in the current data relative to the most recent other-year results, is to compare the 2024 result to the 2023 result for each indicator.  The graph below illustrates these comparisons of rates of responding “Excellent” or “Good” (the “delta’s”) for each indicator, separated by county.  Most noteworthy observation is that overall, in 2024 residents express less satisfaction with community characteristics than was measured in 2023, illustrated by a large majority having negative (-) recent changes. 

• In Lewis County, the rate of responding “Excellent” or “Good” decreased for 18 of the 20 measured indicators between 2023 and 2024, most notably decreasing by at least 10% for each of cultural/entertainment opportunities, shopping opportunities, quality of K-12 education, and public outdoor recreation opportunities.
• In St. Lawrence County, the rate of responding “Excellent” or “Good” also decreased for 18 of the 20 measured indicators between 2023 and 2024, most notably decreasing by at least 8% for each of the overall state of the local economy, and availability of care for the elderly.
• In contrast, in Jefferson County, the rate of responding “Excellent” or “Good” has increased for 13 of the 21 measured indicators between 2023 and 2024, most notably increasing by at least 7% for each of the overall state of the local economy, access to higher education, and quality of the environment.

4. What issues do North Country residents most commonly believe are the largest issues currently facing residents? – It’s Pocketbook Issues

North Country residents in 2024 continued to express that inflation and the cost of living are problematic. When asked the open-ended question, “What do you think is the single largest issue that is facing residents of the North Country right now?”, inflation was the most common response, provided by 23% of participants (23% in Jefferson, 28% in Lewis, and 22% in St. Lawrence). Concerns with inflation is significantly higher among Lewis County residents when compared to the other two studied counties. Citing “The Economy” emerged in the North Country as the second-most common issue.  If one were to merge the three related issues of inflation, the economy, and more and better jobs as a new meta-grouping of “Pocketbook Issues”, then more than five-in-ten North Country residents (51%) indicate that these pocketbook, or financial, issues are the largest issues that residents face in 2024.  

Among the many very apparent contrasts in the perceived importance of issues that are discovered and shared in the full report, the following are worthy of notice: 

• When comparing counties, several differences in perceived most important issues emerge.  Most noteworthy is that Lewis County residents by far most commonly, more than residents of the other two studied counties, cite the personal finance issues of “Inflation” and “The Economy” as the largest issues (Lewis=55%, while Jefferson=40%, and St. Lawrence=47%). In Jefferson County the collective housing issues of “Affordable Housing”, “Homelessness” and “Drugs” are more commonly cited than in the other two counties (Jefferson=29%, while Lewis=15%, and St. Lawrence=13%). Finally, the noticeable difference in St. Lawrence County when compared to the other two counties is perception of “Immigration” as the largest issue (St. Lawrence=9%, while Lewis=4%, and Jefferson=2%)
• Many socio-demographic subgroups hold differing opinions regarding the most important issue that residents are facing, and all of these differences are shown and described in Section 3 and Appendix II of the Center’s findings report online. However, in this election year, clearly the most influential factor that appears to be associated with perceived issues/problems is political, participants’ 2024 Presidential vote choice.  When the distributions of responses for the most important issues are compared between the groups of 2024 Donald Trump voters versus 2024 Kamala Harris voters, many stark differences are observable. One of many observed differences conclude that Trump voters in the North Country are almost 50 times more likely to respond that “Immigration” is the largest issue facing residents of the North Country than are Harris voters (9.8% vs. 0.2%, respectively).

5. The 2024 Presidential Election – Pre-election Polling/Forecasting by the Center for Community Studies and an In-depth Comparison of Trump Voters vs. Harris Voters

In every election season in recent years, the Center for Community Studies has completed political election polling as a component of this quality-of-life survey study. During this 2024 study, election polling was completed for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.  With polling estimates generated from this survey sampling that are county-specific, four different election predictions were made on the morning of election day (11/05/24). There are two reasons why these election preference items are included in the autumn sampling/surveying:

1. Governance and elections are important aspects of citizenry and community quality-of-life, and as such, are important factors to measure, study, and better understand, and
2. When elections occur the “right answer” (the actual election result), of course, becomes available. Therefore, elections provide an opportunity for the Center for Community Studies to compare their sampled/polled estimate or forecast to that which actually occurs to complete an evaluation of the effectiveness of the sampling, question wording, data analysis, weighting and calibrating, that is employed to ensure that the best practices of public opinion polling and research that are implemented at the Center are actually effective and accurate. In effect, elections are an opportunity to test one’s methodology.

Clearly the polling data (among 1,286 likely voters on October 22-27, 2024, out of the 1,790 participants in this annual study) identifies the overwhelming support Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump enjoys among likely voters in the North Country, especially in Lewis County. The rate of support for Trump increased between 2020 and 2024 in all three counties. Additionally, (2) the methods employed in October 2024 for polling at the Center for Community Studies were successful. For each of the four predicted races the polling estimates are within the margin of error when compared to the actual result for each geographic subgroup. Of note – among the sample of n=513 likely voters from Jefferson County, 60.7% indicated in the Center poll that they planned to vote for Mr. Donald Trump. After 42,800+ votes were cast in the county, 61.7% actually voted for Mr. Trump, meaning the polling error in this county was only 1.0%.

To better understand North Country residents and the electorate, the voting preferences among the 1,286 likely voters in the three-county combined region have been cross-tabulated by socio-demographic subgroups and are illustrated in the Center’s findings report online.  

The studied subgroups that reported the greatest likelihood to vote for Mr. Trump include males (68%), those ages 40-59 (72%), those with no college education (69%), those who self-identify as conservatives (93%), and those who are registered Republicans (85%). However, the most strongly associated predictor variable for whom one intends to vote in 2024 is past vote choice! Among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 there is extreme loyalty, with 97% of this subgroup intending to vote for him again in 2024.  In contrast, although there appears to be strong loyalty among non-Trump voters, the level of loyalty is less strong – among those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, only 94% of this subgroup intended to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024.  Without question, this greater level of loyalty among past Trump voters is the large contributing factor to the increase in his vote share in the region between 2020 and 2024. 

6. Other Longitudinally Tracked Resident Opinions and Characteristics

In October 2022 the Center for Community Studies began to treat the sampling of the three separate North Country counties regarding quality-of-life as one annual larger omnibus survey of the region.  As a result, it is only since 2022 that each of the counties annually has used the exact same survey instrument, while sampling on the same days.  Clearly, attitudes about the direction that things are going, political ideologies, employment status, and assessment of family personal financial situations have remained very consistent over the past two years.  Residents continue to be more likely to believe that things in our country, in our state, and in their specific county are heading in the wrong, rather than right, direction.  Residents continue to be approximately four times more likely to report that their personal financial situation has gotten worse over the past twelve months, when compared to the rate of reporting that it has gotten better.  As has been true for all 25 years of community surveying that has been completed in the North Country, it continues to be true that residents are 2-3 times more likely to self-identify as conservative rather than liberal, however, the most common response is that residents consider themselves as “middle of the road”.  

7. Homelessness in the North Country 

Due to the significance of housing and homelessness as a community issue in the North Country in 2024, the Center for Community Studies included a series of questions about opinion, impact, and understanding of this issue in this study.  These questions were suggested by local leadership and elected officials during the early autumn of 2024, and are the only questions included in this study that are not longitudinally trended.  In the spirit of the mission of the Center for Community Studies: “The Center for Community Studies at Jefferson Community College supports and facilitates a wide range of community-building and educational activities that engage the community. In collaboration with community partners, the Center conducts unbiased community-based research and provides a forum for the productive discussion of ideas and issues of significance to the community”, these items were studied and are now reported. The graph included in the Center’s findings report suggests that North Country residents: have been personally impacted by homelessness (61% at least minor impact), believe that homelessness should be a priority in their community (60% at least moderate priority), believe that homelessness is a safety concern in their community (57% at least moderate concern), and most commonly believe that substance abuse is a primary reason for the homelessness in their community (57% hold this belief).  Given these opinions and perceived impacts, when asked about their level of support for  shelters with limited or minimal requirements for entry for those who are homeless in one’s community, North Country residents express a high level of support, with 61% indicating that they are very or somewhat supportive, and another 17% “a little supportive”.  Only 15% report that they are “not at all supportive”.  

The sponsors of these annual surveys of the North Country communities are Jefferson Community College, Car-Freshner, the Northern New York Community Foundation, the Development Authority of the North Country, and the Lewis County Board of Legislature who all provide financial support to assist in the funding of these projects.

The entire final report of study findings, including the detailed statistical analysis of trends and cross-tabulations, and discussion of study results is available to the public for free.  

About the Center for Community Studies
Since 1999, the Center for Community Studies has completed hundreds of research surveys for the community and for private companies. The Center ties professional knowledge from full-time faculty members to students learning statistics and mathematics to clients in the region who need data to solve real-world problems. The Center is the only local research entity and produces high caliber information. Jefferson Community College is the only community college in the nation to have such a research center. 

About Jefferson Community College 
Established on November 7, 1961, Jefferson Community College was the area’s first institution of higher education. Supervised by the State University of New York (SUNY), Jefferson offers 50+ associate degrees, certificates and microcredentials for career preparation or transfer; local access to bachelor’s and advanced degrees through partner institutions; lifelong learning through workshops and seminars; business and industry training; and provides community-based research and a forum for the productive discussion of ideas and issues of significance to the community through the Center for Community Studies. Jefferson is accredited by the Middle States Association and currently serves approximately 2,500 students, including a significant number of service members and their families.